Health Reform Modeling
At Incline, we help stakeholders understand the financial and programmatic impact of healthcare reform. State and local government agencies, managed care organizations, providers, and national associations rely on our reform models to make informed decisions in an evolving policy environment.
Turning Data Into Forecasts
Using historical claims, enrollment trends, utilization patterns, and anticipated policy shifts, we build cost projections and multi-year financial forecasts. These models enable agencies and plans to anticipate funding needs, evaluate the sustainability of new or expanded benefits, and prepare for operational realities before reforms take effect.
Experience With Major Policy Shifts
Our team has modeled the impact of many different state and federal legislative efforts ranging from the ACA to the more recent OBBBA. Incline led the development of the Medicaid unwinding model for the Society of Actuaries. This model has been used by other actuaries, states, and MCOs to develop assumptions and forecast enrollment. We ensure that stakeholders understand all components of our models as our actuaries separate program changes from underlying trend, quantifying one-time adjustments such as new benefits, contractual changes, or compliance requirements. This ensures our forecasts remain both precise and defensible.
Granular and Transparent
Incline applies modeling at the region, rate cell, and service category level to capture the nuances of program change. Our approach combines technical rigor with clarity, producing reform models that are transparent, stakeholder-ready, and consistent with CMS guidelines.
Why It Matters
Health reform creates uncertainty—but it also creates opportunity. By blending actuarial expertise with practical program knowledge, Incline equips states and organizations to evaluate the impact of reforms with confidence, build consensus among stakeholders, and make proactive adjustments for long-term stability.